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Industry and a protracted conflict

Industry and a protracted conflict

Conference

Australian Naval Institute (ANI) 2025 Goldrick Seminar

Summary

Australia faces a deteriorating geopolitical environment, marked by increasing strategic tension in the Indo-Pacific and the risk of major, protracted conflict. This paper addresses the preparation of Australian industry to support protracted conflict in the following manner:

  1. Examining the links between sovereignty, resilience and deterrence. These are important concepts and are often misused.
  2. Addressing the current challenges facing Australia, and the industrial implications of those challenges.
  3. A short analysis on types of resilience.
  4. Consideration of practical measures that Australia can undertake to prepare the domestic industry.

This paper is associated with a presentation to the 2025 Goldrick Seminar that couched its considerations to 2030. Within that context, options for preparation are somewhat limited.

Key takeaways:

  1. Industrial sovereignty, in terms of control over intellectual property (IP) and domestic capability, are foundational to resilience and deterrence. In Australia, our sovereignty faces two critical constraints, being warning time and critical mass of our defence platforms.
  2. Liquid fuel dependency and supply chain fragility are strategic risks that must be mitigated to attain industrial sovereignty.
  3. Resilience and deterrence are interlinked and must be approached as national system-of-systems effort. A resilient industrial base and society not only sustain operations during protracted conflict but also deter aggression. Immediate government action to prioritise strategic outcomes, reform procurement, and invest in autonomy and fuel security, is essential to prepare Australia for the challenges ahead.

Author

Dr Graeme Dunk PhD MDefStud MSc BSc DipMarStud MCGI, Head of Strategy, Shoal Group

Date

Wednesday 15 October 2025

Learn more

Industry and a protracted conflict | The Australian Naval Institute

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