Shoal to present at the 21st Australian International Aerospace Congress
Two Shoal papers have been accepted to be presented at the 21st Australian International Aerospace Congress (AIAC21). Co-authored by Emma Comino and John Wharington, the papers explore the use of modelling and simulation as a decision-making tool in high level defence and flight safety scenarios. A foundation area of expertise at Shoal, modelling and simulation allows the testing of complex systems and concepts, exploring system behaviour under different scenarios or circumstances.
Koopman Expectation for range safety assurance
Their first research paper is called ‘Koopman Expectation for range safety assurance’. It is an exploratory study using Koopman Expectation, instead of the usual Monte Carlo methods, to estimate the debris distribution in the case of launch failure of Uninhabited Aerial Vehicles (UAVs). These types of autonomous aerial systems present challenges in their integration into airspace management, particularly relating to public safety in the case of system failure. One of the key challenges is capturing enough debris statistics to mitigate safety concerns and facilitate regulatory approval. Shoal’s research found that the Koopman Expectation reduced the number of range safety simulations required over Monte Carlo analysis and, therefore, could decrease simulation costs.
Conducting this research builds upon Shoal’s legacy in range safety assessments. This has included a broad range of aerospace systems across the Defence, civilian and research domains, from the ASRAAM air-to-air missile, JASSM cruise missile, JDAM-ER long-range glide bomb, Javelin anti-armour missile, MU-90 torpedo, and HIFiRE hypersonic test vehicles, to the atmospheric re-entry of the first JAXA ‘Hayabusa’ spacecraft in 2010 and the return of an overseas-launched space object (AROLSO) for the Hayabusa2 sample return capsule in 2020. This experience led to the development of Shoal’s Aerospace and Risk Capability (SHARC), a set of tools that enables modelling of complex aerospace systems, and their failure modes. The research undertaken by Emma and John provides a proof of concept for a novel approach to further develop this suite of analysis and assurance tools.
Optimising asset placement in IAMD scenarios
The second paper co-authored by Emma and John is ‘Optimising asset placement in IAMD scenarios’. This paper looks at the design of Integrated Air and Missile Defence (IAMD) architectures and their effectiveness.
IAMD is an integral part of protecting high-value assets such as population centres and key military sites against missile threats. They comprise a network of systems, coordinated as such to detect incoming threats (using sensors) and engage to defend against them (using effectors).
Shoal developed an optimisation scheme to position sensor and effector assets to best defend against simulated missile threat scenarios in the Defence Asset Placement SIMulator (DAPSIM). The DAPSIM interface provides a fast and interactive environment for investigating IAMD architectures in the context of missile defence, with modelling and simulation used to explore various defence scenarios, without the deployment cost.
AIAC21
Both papers will be presented by Emma at AIAC21 on Monday 24 March 2025. The AIAC21 theme this year is ‘Beyond horizons: Shaping tomorrow’s aerospace frontiers through collaboration’. Evidencing its own collaborative approach, it brings together four events into one, with conference registration also allowing delegates access to the Australian International Airshow in Avalon, the 14th DSTG International Conferences on Heal and Usage Monitoring (HUMS) and the 18th National Space Engineering Symposium (NSES). Together, the events feature the latest research, developments and technologies in aerodynamics, aerostructures, air and space operations, and HUMS technologies.
Shoal’s modelling and simulation expertise supports the conceptual design of highly complicated systems across aerospace, defence, and within flight safety applications. Shoal has been at the forefront of the conceptual design of the Australian Defence Force’s future air defence capabilities for almost two decades. In 2009, Shoal applied model-based conceptual design methods to the Army’s Counter – Rocket, Artillery and Mortar (C-RAM) sense, warn and locate capability acquired under Project LAND 19-7A, which was then employed to protect personnel in Afghanistan. Shoal was engaged in early integration studies for the Joint Air Battle Management System and medium-range ground-based air and missile defence system to be delivered under project AIR6500.
AIAC21 conference: 21st Australian International Aerospace Congress | Engineers Australia
View the conference program: AIAC21 2025 program
About Shoal
Shoal is complex systems design company. We use Systems Engineering combined with Modelling, Simulation and Analysis to help our clients define, analyse, decide, optimise, and deliver technology-intensive projects in complex environments across Defence, Space, Transport, Energy and Infrastructure.
More: shoalgroup.com
Media contact
Matthew Wylie
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